LAW OF DIMINISHING RETURNS

My Decision Analysis midterm exam is super weird...

First off, it's designed to make you fail. There are about 20 multiple choice questions, each worth 5 points. However, for every question you answer you have to put the probability of it being right. Say you think A is right, and you're pretty sure it's the answer, so you put a probability of 0.7 beside it. That'll be how sure you are the answer is. Since you think A has a 70% chance of being correct, then the other options will either be assigned equal values of the remaining probability or you can assign values for yourself, just as long as they all add up to 1.

Anyhow, your mark for each question depends on the probability you put beside the correct answer. And if it so happens that A was correct and you put a probability of 0.7, then you gain 3.71 marks. If it wasn't, and instead was C (which you put a probability of, say, 0.1) you get -3.30. You don't get the full 5 unless you put a probability of 1. Duh. Now this is because the points are determined by an exponential curve. Which mathematically proves that

if A was correct (and you put a 0.7), then 5+3.60674 log(0.7) = 3.71 points
if C was correct (and you stupidly put a 0.1) then 5+3.60674 log(0.1) = -3.30 points

Now, due to the logic of this exponential curve and the fact that we know maths can never lie, it is also true that if you're super confident, you might also be super stupid. An example....

You look at a question and think, "Why, I know the answer for this! I'll put a probability of 1 'cos I'm frickin sure it's A! ". I'm sure we've all felt this way at some time or another while doing an exam, and when we get back our paper, it turns out we're wrong. Don't lie. It's happened to all of us. BUT...if you did this in THIS exam, and put a 1 beside the answer you thought was right, then obviously all the other options B, C and D would have a probability of 0. And using our trusty log system, that would give you a....let's see..

if C was the answer (and you had a probability of 0 for it, since you already put a 1 beside A) then 5+3.60674 log(0) = - infinity

Woohoo! This, obviously, will cause you to flunk the exam. And it's pretty hard to pull up. heh.

So now what? Put a probability of 0.25 for all answers? This'll give me a 0 for the exam, but hell it's a whole lot better than getting a negative infinity!

THE SWEETEST THING

isn't that just the prettiest smile you've ever seen? :)

VALENTINE

i got a niece!!!!!

I wrote something for Valentine's. :) (I promise it's not as cheesy as it sounds :D)

PIZZA SESSION

The work load this semester keeps me awake every night that my normal consumption of caffeine has rendered insignificant. Even the guy at Kiva has noticed my unusual absence.

I spent 2 hours attending my Decision Analysis TA session. Which is always fun because Lynna is great. Plus today all of us ate more pizzas then we did homework problems.

Tomorrow I have my Fundamentals of Statistical Modelling exam. And what better time to be sick :(

STRESSED SHRINKS

Happy AidilAdha all!!!

It was so slippery today. On my way to class I counted the guy infront of me slip 3 times. I let him walk a couple of feet ahead so that I could estimate which parts of the sidewalk I should avoid. My plan worked.

In a study to measure the level of stress given a particular department a student majors in (in this observation the case study were Business, Engineering and Psychology students) it was found that Business students are less stressed. No surprise there. But check this out. The group of students with the highest level of stress turned out to be non other than those future shrinks. Well well. Who would've guessed. All that info on Child Development and Personality Dissection (I made this one up) must've somehow gotten to them. It seems that by some reversal order of the universe, stocks and bonds just might be better for your health.

Either that, or the economy is healing.

SADISTIC SPORT

i played squasy today.
i played til my hand bled. really.
oh and i literally whacked yusno's butt. really really.
with the ball.

YET ANOTHER FACELIFT

man i've been nusy! <-- that was me touch typing :p ....

anyway... this has been the most hectic first 4 weeks of my entire academic experience. but it's all good. so far.

lately i've been thinking... my site was way too bright. hence the change. better? i haven't had the chance to update the rest of my pages, but I think those hardly ever get visited anyway. i might work on those, i might not.

well i better stop and do some dadss now since i've been putting it off for so long. i guess i'll update my entries as soon as i get the hang of my current schedule :)